Sea Level Rise Risk Assessment for DoD Coastal Installations Project # 08-410 2009

Background:
The consensus of the international scientific
community is that future sea-level rise based on
climate model output will result in an increase in
global eustatic sea-level of between 0.5-3.1 feet by
2100, with a “best estimate” of 1.6 feet. This is more
than double the rate of eustatic (global sea level) rise
for the past century. These sea level rise projections
were recently updated in the 2007 Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which reported a
0.9 to 1.4 feet rise in sea level by 2100. Uncertainty
in ice-sheet decay models has some scientists calling
the estimate “conservative”. A report in the January
2007 issue of Science calls for a 1.6 to 4.6 foot
increase in sea level rise by 2100. Coastal North
Carolina has been identified as one of the United
States most vulnerable regions to climate change.
More than 2,000 square miles of North Carolina’s
coastal ecosystems and urban areas are below onemeter
elevation and within the range of projected sea
level rise from climate change for the year 2100.
Recent studies have demonstrated that, as climate
change contributes to inundation, increased shoreline
erosion and higher hurricane intensity, coastal DoD
installations may experience significant losses in the
absence of mitigation and local adaptation.

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